9/3/2023 0 Comments Polls compare anything![]() So, if election polls aren’t a reliable measure of polling accuracy, what is? There are a number of other ways we can measure the health of polling. ![]() Why not? Because an election poll has an extra hurdle to jump: It not only has to measure public opinion, it also has to predict which of the people interviewed are going to vote and how they will vote – a notoriously difficult task. It’s also important to remember that election polls are just one kind of poll, and that they’re not the best barometer for the accuracy of polling in general. ![]() A silver lining is that both of these problems can be overcome, to some extent, by more rigorous survey weighting and heightened attention to the possibility of late shifts in voter preferences. The major problem was with state-level polls, many of which missed a late swing to Trump among undecided voters and did not correct for the fact that their responding samples contained proportionally too many college-educated voters (who were more likely to favor Clinton). National pre-election polls in 2016 indicated that Hillary Clinton would win the national popular vote by a 3-point margin, and in fact she won by 2 points. presidential election may be surprised to learn that national polling was generally quite accurate. Those who felt led astray by surveys conducted during the 2016 U.S. Our new video explains why well-designed polls can be trusted. Since these two major world events occurred, we have been asked the same question when giving presentations, on social media, in interviews, and from our own friends and neighbors: “Can we still trust polls?” presidential election, as well as the UK’s decision to leave the European Union through “Brexit,” rattled public confidence in polls. This is one of an occasional series of posts on polling.ĭonald Trump’s victory in the 2016 U.S.
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